After Tuesday’s loss to the Tampa Bay Rays the Red Sox’s probability to make the playoffs fell to 0.9%. It looked grim, but on Wednesday they beat the Rays and their probability “skyrocketed” to 1.7%! The joy was short lived as they managed to lose the next two games and their change to play in the baseball post season fell to 0.1% or one in thousand.
There are 8 games left in the 2024 season for them and they have to win all of them. That would be the easy part, the four teams in front of them would all have to lose at last 6 (that’s right six) of their last 8 games. One in a thousand sounds optimistic, more like one in a million.